Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 1024.089646 1172.423526 1342.454002 1553.507579 1810.876641 2117.702747 2.516008e+03
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 793.074831 974.655842 1204.086924 1521.651672 1960.433522 2562.283021 3.482263e+03
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 702.265226 899.862955 1164.595074 1556.956182 2145.539957 3035.520020 4.571673e+03
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 642.274472 852.614774 1148.972212 1615.647115 2370.612506 3624.020901 6.071428e+03
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 589.187399 804.338830 1119.960824 1642.379161 2543.464689 4168.191319 7.727476e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 537.920652 751.006381 1073.985032 1631.091078 2645.775998 4613.083207 9.406910e+03
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 505.062801 720.627482 1057.981969 1664.320761 2831.872130 5276.010563 1.198006e+04
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 459.967046 666.126572 995.963882 1606.149750 2828.910993 5537.713425 1.368061e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 423.072337 620.972388 943.999682 1557.645073 2834.037359 5819.207304 1.565234e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 390.151941 579.286525 893.388595 1504.054001 2816.932015 6042.262675 1.762489e+04
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 380.403254 574.790470 906.270097 1574.289146 3087.518346 7114.762021 2.388540e+04
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 367.154956 563.057593 904.743868 1615.089012 3300.369540 8126.406993 3.135365e+04
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 350.542609 545.036028 891.497996 1633.335993 3473.882031 9144.817572 4.100281e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 329.925279 518.498314 859.999155 1608.478687 3533.642197 9836.519792 5.043700e+04
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 318.445553 507.163616 856.051374 1643.655452 3765.811635 11297.923726 7.031742e+04
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 310.906774 502.281779 864.056358 1707.631505 4102.008572 13437.441589 1.075051e+05
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 300.311450 490.830224 857.612274 1736.133627 4342.022885 15377.976822 1.577086e+05
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 286.788623 472.853125 836.047290 1724.064909 4450.222049 16791.190969 2.151260e+05
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 278.580169 464.391162 833.463370 1759.811766 4733.112519 19450.619487 3.489768e+05
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 262.746053 440.145438 795.267792 1697.210929 4651.811907 19905.749675 4.263320e+05
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 248.957520 419.118097 762.453903 1645.045923 4597.562968 20528.946311 5.374388e+05
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 235.726755 398.482873 729.051151 1587.458404 4510.454037 20893.429661 6.594123e+05
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 233.518033 399.521705 743.260063 1662.941420 4965.808967 25796.471952 1.620063e+06